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Think we're squaded up now, folks!

Lets get it on!

Last edited by yohnst at 08/24/2023 11:36:52

I'll say! North of $500k (for now)!

Season 62 Preview - Part One
Unofficially, here's the official welcome to our Div III.11 residents. Not sure I'll be able to do a weekly write-up this season, but I'm getting my pre-season rankings (which will be LOUD WRONG, I'm sure) out before the first game of the season. It will mostly be wrong because managers aren't finished selling off their sluff and adding their dominance, though some of us seem to be settled in for the long haul with what we've got. If I have time, once things settle down, I may try to update these around the all star break.

Last season I predicted San Dominica to defeat Żubr Białystok in two games. And while neither team made the finals, Żubr certainly looked certain for it until they went AWOL, and unfortunately still haven't made an appearance in over a month now. Once again Carolina Rebels exceeded expectations and spat in my face on their way to defeated Mindless Zombies in three games.

And now, for my disclaimer:

I've done these rankings for the last few seasons with a major modification to it two seasons ago. I measure each salary against the average for each category and then assigned a point value based on that. For example for Total Salary it breaks down like this for teams $100k over the league total average and for teams $100k less the league total average:

Team Total Salary > League Total Salary Average+100,000 = 60 Points
Team Total Salary +100,000 < League Total Salary Average = 0 Points

We'll use this season's current salaries as examples:
- Miami Cleo currently has a total salary number of $397,995, which is almost $100k over the league wide average of $307,902, so in that category they score 50 points, missing out on the bonus 10 points for being over $100k by $10k in total salary.
- On the opposite end of the spectrum is Fort Wayne Pistons, whose current total salaries are $190,728 - when we add another $100k to that, they're still less than the league average, so they score 0 points.

You then have variances for points assigned to a team based on how far they vary from the average with the above examples being the extreme.

I weight Total Salary and Top 6-10 (bench play) the highest (range from 0-60 points), while Top 5 and Top 8 are 2nd tiered (0-30 points) and Top 10 is the lowest tier (0-15 points). I add those five category point totals and then divide by five and you have your rankings by total points. All ties are broken by Top 6-10 rank.

My usual disclaimer: I'm not a scientist, but I am a dork who can't get enough of this dumb game, thus my predictions. Before the ranking predictions, here are some of the highlights and lowlights of our league.

Season 62 Preview - Part Two
Current League Leaders in Salary
1. southpaw army - $492,115. With 22 players rostered, their average is just $22k per player, but as you'll come to see, the bulk of those salaries come in their top ten.
2. Linndale - $401,703. There's some salary to be shed here, as Rod Guyton's been transfer listed for nearly three weeks now - I don't know if there's any moves to be made after that sale, but knowing Speedtraps, I wouldn't be surprised if another vet was added.
3. Miami Cleo - $397,995. After resurrecting from the dead in Season 61, they didn't meet the expectations of their salary, but performed well enough on the back stretch to stick around...it'll be nice to see them back to their usual form (only because they're on the other side of the conferences from me!).

Once again our average salary has increased, this year by $35k for an average of $307k. That makes a total difference in average salary from Season 58 until now a relatively staggering $92k. This season only seven teams are averaging less than that, but three of them are averaging more than $100k less with two teams nearly at or below $200k less than the average.

Fab 5's
These aren't necessarily the starting 5, but instead the top 5 paid players, in which we see a familiar set of three teams:
1. southpaw army - $332k - 67% of their total salaries
2. Linndale - $303k - 75%
3. Miami Cleo - $300k - 75%

Overall, the 16 teams average $216k for top 5 paid players with four teams averaging more than $$50k more than the average and six teams averaging less than the average. Las Vegas and Twotone are the only two spending less than $100k on their top 5.

Current League Leaders in Assumed Top Bench Players (Top 6-10)
1. southpaw army - $122k ($24.4k per player)
2. San Dominica Warriors - $102k ($20.4k per player)
3. Żubr Białystok - $90k ($18k per player)

Season 62 Preview - Part Three
Season 62 Final Ranking Predictions
Once again, these rankings are based on salaries, with total salary and 6-10 players weighted highest, then a notch below that ranks Top 5 & Top 8, followed by Top 10. Feel free to be Skip Bayless or Stephen A. Smith (just not at the same time please). And don't forget, these salary numbers will most definitely change, but my terrible predictions never will! Total points acheived in my rankings will be in parenthesis.

16. Twotone Touloose (0) - I feel bad for these new Div IV teams that dominate and then get dropped in our league...they might have a fighting chance in a different division, but I can't imagine very many of the 16 Div III leagues average as much salary spend as ours does. They did bring in a couple of new bodies...but they're going to have to do something drastic to compete this season.

15. Las Vegas High Rollers (0) - Last season's #15 was a tanking Div II relegated LionPride, and unfortunately for Bimpy, Las Vegas is not even close to being that. I'd have to go back and check, but I'm not sure I've ever had two teams end up with 0 points in these rankings.

14. Fort Wayne Pistons (2) - This season, there's definitely a bottom three, and Fort Wayne rounds it out, but of those three, they appear to have the experience to have the best chance to stick around and make it a fighting chance. But The Mechanic definitely has their work cut out for them.

13. VileOnes (8) - It's not that I'm hating on all the new arrivals (though I will have plenty of hate for yohnst, I'm sure), but this is where it gets starts to get interesting because we're closer to the average overall. Vile Returns is playing with a bit of a shorter roster which grants them the sixth highest ranked roster by average salary per player. We'll see if that's enough for them to not relegate (see, I like to make others hate me to make my life miserable).

12. Żubr Białystok (9) - I wouldn't have guessed that whitestok's group would be ranked this low...but unless they show up and make some moves, despite their tactical saviness, I doubt it will be a productive campaign for them.

11. 209's MostWanted (11) - Once again, I'm insulting Alex from the 209 by placing them this low, despite their clawing and fighting to finish with a .500 record last season in the midst of the terrible Big 8. But with no moves other than their $12k 24-year-old backup in June, they might finish at .500 and stick around, but they'll need a little more juice to make more noise than a couple of upsets.

10. F.Day Internet Club (13) - Congratulations to Mc KC, who occupies 10th in my rankings, the same ranking I gave Carolina last season before they went on to stomp my face in mud in the Big 8 conference finals enroute to their victorious campaign. They have made several moves, so we'll see if they pan out.

9. Tasty Tardsicles (18 - 10th in 6-10 Rank) - Another short roster phenom, spilly19 is rolling the dice on another potentially easier Great 8 conference run to make the playoffs and improve on last season's 14-8 record.

Season 62 Preview - Part Three & 1/2
8. Philly Dribble (18 - 6th in 6-10 Rank) - While Miguel Velasco looks nastier than ever before, the roster is starting to age (though I'm sure they haven't shown signs of it yet). I'm sure Phils_wings will be just fine, but their lack of dominance the last couple of seasons has baffled me a bit.

7. San Dominica Warriors (18 - 2nd in 6-10 Rank) - We saw it with Carolina last season and we've seen it with Coach Stephenson's crew the last few seasons - rather than trying to blow you out with high salary, they couch themselves in depth, depth, depth - quality depth keeps them in every ball game and dominate the ones they should.

6. Lion Rebels (22) - No, I'm not listing my team first...those of you who are new, will come to find out I'm not much of a homer and much more of a pessimist when it comes to my sporting life. The sad truth, is this is probably Armstead's last season of dominance and my other training regiment hasn't quite made it to where I wanted it to be to make an attempt at Div II, so Div III 'til I die (or something like that).

5. Super Sonics (25) - I don't rate them so high just because I was a Gary Payton fan boi in the 90's, but they're certainly a quality team who is tough to take down. These upper middle teams are going to be a cluster when its all said and done.

4. Mindless Zombies (26) - Last season's championship loser returns with a new big man addition and a renewed sense of accomplishment. We'll see if they can be the top Great 8 team again this season.

3. Linndale (28 - 9th in 6-10 Rank) - Linndale are ranked in the top 3 of each category, except for 6-10 - a similar refrain from last season which saw them somewhat fall apart as it came down to the most meaningful games to make the playoffs. Hearn will surely be vying to dethrone Armstead for the MVP trophy this season.

2. Miami Cleo (28 - 4th in 6-10 Rank) - Miami's back and better than ever! Or at least that's what I hope the refrain is for them, though I don't enjoy facing them in the middle of the season for inter-conference play. Can they hold off the Zombies and Sonics for #1 in the Great 8?

1. southpaw army (37) - This is pretty much a foregone conclusion. They're the only team to score 60 points in the total salary and only one of two to score 50 in the 6-10 Ranks, while also leading the other categories. As much as I wish yohnst's "I'm not planning on being here long" comment was about relegating to Div IV, I'll be happy to see this season disappear into the abyss on the back of their surely 22-0 tromp through our league this season.

Conference Standings

Big 8
1. southpaw army
2. Linndale
3. Lion Rebels
4. San Dominica
5. Philly Dribble
6. F.Day Internet Club
7. 209's MostWanted
8. Las Vegas High Rollers

Great 8
1. Miami Cleo
2. Mindless Zombies
3. Super Sonics
4. Tasty Tardsicles
5. Żubr Białystok
6. VileOnes
7. Fort Wayne Pistons
8. Twotone Touloose

Playoff/Relegation Predictions
Great 8 Playoffs
Tasty Tardsicles vs. Miami Cleo
Super Sonics vs. Mindless Zombies (Upset!)

Big 8 Playoffs
San Dominica vs. southpaw army
Lion Rebels vs. Linndale (Upset!)

Great 8 Semi-Final Matchup
Super Sonics vs. Miami Cleo (Upset!)

Big 8 Semi-Final Matchup
Lion Rebels vs. southpaw army

Relegation Matchups
Philly Dribble over Fort Wayne Pistons in two
Żubr Białystok over 209's MostWanted in three (insert everything is fine dog/fire gif)
F.Day Internet Club over VIleOnes in three

Season 61 Championship
southpaw army over Super Sonics in two.

And so, there you have it! Good luck this season and may the best team prove me wrong!

Final programming note: all of my quips and schticks are tongue in cheek meant to have a little fun.

Let's go! I am ready to compete for my (predicted) 6th place. Good luck, everybody! I hope no one will experience any injuries or other major problems.

Your write ups are crazy fun thanks for doing those!

I enjoy a little shit talk so I liked the early needle.

Good luck to everyone as we get going tonight… hopefully injuries are minimal. Some real quality squads in this league so excited to mix it up.

Happy Ourer: “Hello Linndale fans, and welcome to another season of Linndale basketball. I am your host, Happy Ourer, and there have been some changes this season. Starting off with the departures, our very own Marshall Richards and Air Allnite have traded the broadcast booth for the opportunity to join Pio Reina’s coaching staff. Joining us here in the broadcast booth is my new partner, Linndale alumni Joshua Doe. Welcome aboard, Josh!”

Joshua Doe: “Thank you for the welcome, Happy! It’s great to be back! I do have to ask, what are you doing that this seat is a cradle of coaches? Didn’t Pio grace this seat a time or two as well?”

HO: “Yes he did, but I take no credit in producing coaches!”

JD: “Well, let’s talk about another coach. In addition to Marshall Richards and Air Allnite, Pio has recruited Byron Helm to join the coaching staff. I’ll tell you what, those kids on the Linndale roster are gonna learn a lot and get there butts handed to them if they scrimmage the coaches! That’s a lot of talent there!”

HO: “What about the team? After a crushing regular season meltdown, is Pio Reina on the hot seat?”

JD: “No, but the GM is. The late moves last season did not work and weren’t well received by the fans. He needs to redeem himself if he can. Ownership has stayed quiet, so it’s unknown where they stand. I know Pio wasn’t happy either.”

HO: “Well, it’s common knowledge around the league that one of last year’s additions, Heikko Valgur, is available, and so is Rod Guyton.”

JD: “Valgur was not a good move for the team last season, but Guyton seems more like a salary dump. Up until late in the season, Guyton was incredible!”

HO: “Any youngsters you’re excited to see?”

JD: “I expect to see Christophe Nguyen play a lot this season. How much will depend on how hard it is to move off Guyton. Another guy affected by Guyton is Rich McCain, and also rookie Eze Donny. Out of those, Nguyen will play a lot. Early on, they are going to have to be creative in getting McCain on the court. Valgur’s presence also affects the playing time of Art Reese and Rolland Reynolds. They will see more time once he’s dealt with. This is a roster that is in transition. I’m excited to see what the year brings for Damian Hatfield and Pascal Michel Pemwieser. I’m excited for all the youngsters, but Hatfield and Pemweiser are the two I’m most excited to see.”

HO: “What about the rest of the cast? What do you expect?”

JD: “Leo Genipabu and Floyd Hearn are my picks to wreck shop. It may take a bit before they get untracked, but once they start rolling, that duo is gonna be tough. Serkan Sokmen will be given the chance to be what they think he is. Mantas Petriukstis needs to take a step forward this season. The talent is there. Trenton Tovar is always fun to watch, we’ll see if he focuses a bit more on defense. Kyle Knowles has said he had a bad season last season and wants to atone for it. This team has talent, but we need to see if they got over that uncharacteristic late season collapse. I understand there are some new philosphies and a change in player development thinking, so we shall see what happens.”

HO: “We’ll be back with assistant coach Byron Helm on the other side of this commercial break. This is the Linndale Basketball Pregame Show!”

HO: “We’re back and joined by Byron Helm, assistant coach for your Linndale basketball team. Welcome Byron!”

Byron Helm: “Thanks for having me!”

JD: “Hey Byron, Joshua Doe here. What can we expect tonight?”

BH: “Joshua! You trying to get into coaching next?”

JD: “I’m trying to be on this side of the desk, my friend! What can you tell us about tonight’s game?”

BH: “The focus is going to be on the young guys. Southpaw army would be a tough test for anyone, but Pio wants to get a read on where the young guys are, specifically in the back court. Guyton and Knowles are not playing tonight. Neither is Heikko Valgur.”

JD: “Last season’s team was wildly successful shooting the three pointer last season. Are we looking to be more inside focused this season?”

BH: “Not specifically. Pio still will coach how he thinks will beat the opponent. He’ll coach to the players strengths. He’s just making more of an effort to develop the younger players now. It’s why the team is looking to move Guyton and Valgur.”

JD: “What will we see tonight?”

BH: “Well, we don’t know what we’re getting from the point guard position. Expect Floyd and Leo to lead the way inside and we’ll have a slightly better read on where things stand with the young guys in the back court after tonight. For Shooter and Mantas, this is a test to see who steps up.”

JD: “Thanks, Byron. We’ll be watching!”

Joshua Doe: “I’m with Pio Reina after a season opening loss at home to league newcomer Southpaw Army. Coach, we know there were some things you were looking for. Can you tell us what you saw and what you learned from this game?”

Pio Reina: “Josh, the kids are gonna have to learn some hard lessons sooner or later, and tonight was the first of many. We needed to see who was going to step up in the back court and we came away with some good information, but this is going to be a long process. We learned Nguyen isn’t ready for big minutes. It’s not the shooting; it was the turnovers. Shooter had a rough night, but we’ll learn about him over the long term. We know who and what he is on offense. Petriukstis was solid. We need him to continue being solid off the bench and to start asserting himself more. We didn’t learn much about McCain, but he’ll be a season long project. The guys need court time. We’ll have to sacrifice a few wins to get them developed.”

JD: “Coach, does that change the expectation for this season?”

PR: “No. When you have Floyd Hearn and Kyle Knowles on the roster, you owe to them and the others to put your best foot forward. The season is a marathon, not a sprint. The team you see tonight is not going to be the same at season’s end. We expect to be in the playoffs. That expectation does not ever change. We expect to play defense, rebound, and take care of the basketball. We did not defend. They shot 44% from the field and 40% from the arc. They outrebounded us. We did not take care of the basketball. We didn’t shoot the 3 well. The things we expect did not happen. I expect the veterans will hold the young guys to task in the locker room.”

JD: “Byron Helm said it might take a moment for Floyd Hearn and Leo Genipabu to jell. They looked to me like they held up their end of things. What did you see?”

PR: “Well I’m not going to lie. We didn’t expect Leo to shoot the outside shot like he did, but he had it working. It seems that we always get a big to start drilling those 3 balls, and that’s a nice tool to have, but the guy we brought in for that was only 1 of 5 from the field and didn’t take a 3.”

JD: “Will we see Knowles and Guyton against the Lion Rebels?”

PR: “Kyle will be on the court. Rod Guyton is going to be with another team tomorrow morning. The opportunity for the young guys to get time on the court is definitely here, but their youth does not change our expectation. Mantas and Kyle will start in the backcourt. We’ll sort the rest out later on game day.”

JD: “Should fans expect an new player to be brought in?”

PR: “I just coach who’s here. You’ll have to talk to the GM about that. I’m going to talk to my team, and then meet with my staff.”

JD: “I won’t keep you any longer. Thank you for your time, Coach.”

PR: “Thanks, Josh.”