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Offensive rebounds, the big unknown

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This Post:
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315115.1
Date: 06/29/2022 09:39:34
Folgado Lakers
II.3
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I've talked about this topic with several top managers and there is no consensus at all.

Elaborated answers and cold facts are very very welcome.
Poll:  What matters for offensive rebounds: the player's position in offense or in defense?
In offense
In defense
I have no idea

This Post:
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315115.2 in reply to 315115.1
Date: 06/29/2022 12:08:12
KK.Play-Off
Prva Liga BiH
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Man this is the hardest question on BB. Nobody knows but I random have a huge role here (with the skills and HC)

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315115.3 in reply to 315115.2
Date: 06/29/2022 13:08:53
Folgado Lakers
II.3
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Man this is the hardest question on BB. Nobody knows but I random have a huge role here (with the skills and HC)


Literally

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315115.4 in reply to 315115.1
Date: 06/29/2022 15:38:49
hornets247
IV.5
Overall Posts Rated:
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I think this question can be pretty conclusively answered, actually.

my proposed verification plan:

find a passing big man who on defence will always stay at C, and on offense would play both PG and C.
If OR is offensive position dependent, then his OR/minute rate on PG and C should differ;
If OR is defensive position dependent, then his OR/minute rate on PG and C should be more or less the same, since he stays at C in defence.

Last edited by Bigeasy at 06/29/2022 15:48:15

From: Bigeasy

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315115.5 in reply to 315115.4
Date: 06/29/2022 15:42:05
hornets247
IV.5
Overall Posts Rated:
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fortunately, such a player isn't that hard to find. Let's take a look at Dai Furen's split stats:

For S57: https://buzzerbeater.com/player/44823808/careerstats.aspx
Situation GP MIN M A Pct M A Pct M A Pct OR DR TR AST TO STL BLK
As Start PG10 36.6 1.9 7.2 0.264 0.4 2.3 0.174 0.9 1.2 0.750 2.7 13.9 16.6 4.2 1.8 1.8 3.7 1.1 5.1 11.4

As Start C 12 37.9 1.2 5.0 0.250 0.0 0.8 0.000 1.0 1.3 0.750 4.3 13.0 17.3 4.5 2.2 0.7 3.7 2.1 3.5 19.3

For S56:
As Start PG11 38.9 1.5 8.7 0.177 0.2 1.9 0.095 1.9 2.7 0.700 3.3 11.3 14.5 3.5 1.6 1.1 4.5 1.9 5.2 10.5

As Start C 13 35.9 1.4 6.6 0.209 0.1 0.7 0.111 0.6 0.6 1.000 4.4 12.8 17.2 3.5 1.7 1.2 4.6 1.7 3.5 19.9

For S55:
As Start SF10 30.2 1.6 6.3 0.254 0.2 0.9 0.222 0.6 0.6 1.000 1.7 11.3 13.0 3.3 1.4 1.0 2.8 1.9 4.0 14.1
As Start PF18 33.7 2.2 6.6 0.336 0.3 0.8 0.357 1.0 1.1 0.947 3.0 11.9 14.9 4.1 0.8 1.0 3.8 1.2 5.7 15.6
As Start C 10 36.9 1.3 5.8 0.224 0.0 0.2 0.000 1.3 1.4 0.929 3.5 11.2 14.7 4.0 1.4 1.1 3.5 1.6 3.9 20.7

Last edited by Bigeasy at 06/29/2022 15:43:57

From: Bigeasy

This Post:
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315115.6 in reply to 315115.5
Date: 06/29/2022 15:47:15
hornets247
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I think the confusion sometime might arises from the fact that a player sometimes gets a considerable amount of OR playing at the guard position, because his rebounding skill could have an overwhelming advantage compared to the guard defender, which makes people question why is he getting more OR playing at an outside position?

I would argue that statistically, while the outliers where a player gets a lot of OR playing outside happens from time to time, the general average gives us enough hints that the more inside you play on the offense, the more OR you are going to average

This Post:
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315115.7 in reply to 315115.5
Date: 06/30/2022 03:06:37
Folgado Lakers
II.3
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Great input, mate! I wasn't aware that these stats by position were available. I've checked it with a couple of similar players who play in all 5 positions and yeah, there's a very clear gradual increase in OR from PG to C position.

Assuming this, it would be interesting to look at whether the combined number of OR for the PG and C of your team is significantly higher in games where Furen plays as C compared to games where he plays at PG.

The underlying question in this poll is: does it make sense to take into account the effect that repositions will have on OR when preparing a game? Or will it not matter, as if there's a PG-C switch, the new C (a repositioned PF) will get more OR than usual (but less than the original C) and the new PG (a repositioned C) will get less OR than usual (but more than the original PF), so the overall OR will be the same as when playing with no repositions?

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315115.8 in reply to 315115.7
Date: 06/30/2022 03:46:49
BC Vitosha Sofia
A Grupa
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does it make sense to take into account the effect that repositions will have on OR when preparing a game?
It definitely does imo. I do agree with everything Bigeasy said and provided examples for. 100%.

My underlying question for you would be: how are OR chances distributed amongst the five positions?

We know PF and C tend to get the most DR chances by far. Are, however, OR chances more evenly distributed among the five players on court (resulting in more RB mismatches, dependent on tactics chosen) or are they the same as DR chances?

BBB: 2 (S37 S38); Top tier: 7 (S35 S36 S37 S38 S39 S41 S63); Cup: 9 (S25 S35 S36 S37 S38 S39 S40 S41 S61)
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315115.9 in reply to 315115.8
Date: 06/30/2022 04:31:29
Talentinho
DBA Pro A
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A few questions based on the repositioning:

When there is an offensive rebound the repositioning triggers a mismatch, but how does that mismatch come to existence? Does the defensive tactic influence if said mismatch is available? For instance, if there is a mismatch with a big on PG, is it possible that during the calculations a big on pg gets matched up with another player because of a switch (either with m2m or a zone?) or is that mismatch set up for all the calculations. Also, does the positioning of a player during the shot influence the OR probability? If so, that could have an effect on certain tactics.

This Post:
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315115.10 in reply to 315115.9
Date: 06/30/2022 18:23:12
Roter Stern Stuttgart
II.3
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In my opinion - or it's my hope - better rebounding of the guards still gives an advantage for (offensve-)rebounds as a Team. Maybe the player by himself won't get the rebound, because he is to far away from the basket. Still he is better in boxing out...!?

Last edited by Ted the Threat at 06/30/2022 18:24:55

Manchmal ist man der Hund - manchmal der Baum.
This Post:
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315115.11 in reply to 315115.7
Date: 06/30/2022 22:47:16
hornets247
IV.5
Overall Posts Rated:
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that's essentially asking, for a team that contains a player like Furen, when he starts at PG or starts at C, is there a notable difference in team offensive rebounding rate?

*team offensive rebounding rate will be defined as (# of offensive rebounds+# of rebounds the opposing team touched out of bounds) / # of missed shots (and missed last free throws)

unfortunately I don't think the information is readily available and needs to be tracked by hand - it shouldn't be too prohibitive (I think a couple of hours work would give us an answer that's statistically meaningful), but maybe someone good at hypnotizing can just woo Justin to provide us some numbers... :)