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Mid 1st round comments:

Houston 2-1 Minnesota: Thanks for keeping the series competitive Wolves. I'd still be shocked if you somehow advance, but as long as Towns and Wiggins continue to improve from experience I can see this becoming a 50+ win team next season.

Oklahoma 1-2 Utah: Utah were the team in form leading into the play-offs, and so far they've carried that over into play-off success. Even after a full season of playing together, OKC are still struggling to turn talent into wins, but it's not too late just yet.

Portland 0-4 New Orleans: Here lies Damien Lillard. He never scored.

Golden State 3-1 San Antonio: Whilst the win only delays the inevitable for SA, it may have a lasting impact on the play-offs. That's already one loss more than GS had in the West last year, and it reduces their rest days whilst also proving that they can be beat, though they were still missing Curry.

Toronto 2-2 Washington: Well done Toronto, you've gone 2-0 up and are shaking off the stigm- oh darnit, they've gone full Raptors again and let an 8th seeded Washington level it. Can you at least put this one away in 6 please?

Cleveland 2-2 Indiana: So does this mean I was right to criticise the Cavs for those panic trades at the deadline? Indiana haven't just done better than last year, they now have a genuine chance of ending LeBron's reign in the East by themselves, despite the narrow game 4 loss.

Philadelphia 3-1 Miami: If Toronto loses another game to Washington I'm jumping off that horse and trusting the process. Since Embiid's return, Phili's looked like the strongest team in the conference, and it's reflected in the series scoreline. There's still question marks, but they have the talent and know how to use it.

Boston 2-2 Milwaukee: I was getting really worried that the Bucks would once again under-perform and get stomped by some young guys and a point center, but a big home stand has levelled the series. As for what happens next, who knows?

EDIT: Houston and Utah easily go 3-1 up. The western conference semi-finals is now set unless someone chokes hard (UTA vs HOU, NOLA vs GS).

Last edited by Jay (OTT) at 4/24/2018 2:03:08 AM

Phew. Despite a slow start that saw them down by 12 in the first, the Raptors did indeed finish it. No game seven needed, and meanwhile the Pacers have a double digit lead and are on course to force a game seven with the Cavaliers.

It does come with a small caveat; the Raptors didn't have to play Otto Porter in the closeout game. Certain metrics and analytics say that Otto Porter is an unsung all-star, and possibly even the best player on the Wizards, so not having to deal with him was a big boost.

Last edited by Jay (OTT) at 4/27/2018 9:29:41 PM

Indeed, in these play-offs Otto Porter was shut down, whilst John Wall stepped up, and Mike Scott became the unsung hero for much of the series.

But in the regular season... I'm going to use the On-Court and Off-Court comparison to make my case here. When Otto Porter was on the court, the Wizards were a +5.2 per 100 possessions for the season. Take him off the court, and the Wizards regressed to a -6.0 per 100 possessions. This 11.2 point swing was the difference between the Wizards making the play-offs, and them having an expected W-L of 26-56 if we extrapolate that -6.0 across the whole season.

The comparison does have flaws (Porter played most of his minutes with the starters and not the bench), but it does give you an idea of why I think Washington were forced to match Brooklyn's albatross offer to keep him.

Last edited by Jay (OTT) at 4/27/2018 10:29:09 PM

West:

Utah Jazz vs Houston Rockets

Gobert and Mitchell left the champions of the off-season feeling salty in Salt Lake. But now the Jazz has to play a real team that's actually gotten their act together. Another second round exit barring a miracle, but they have some cap space so they'll be one to watch in free agency.

New Orleans Pelicans vs Golden State Warriors

I wanted to believe that anything is possible after the Pelicans shocked the Blazers with a sweep. Then game one happened. It shouldn't be a sweep, but short of a huge reversal of fortunes, this is still just a speedbump for the Warriors on the road to the Rockets series. And Curry's coming back too.

East:

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Toronto Raptors

Somehow, despite being outscored by 40 in the Pacers series, the Cavaliers survive to face the Raptors in the play-offs again. But at what cost? It took everything LeKing had in him to win game 7, and the rest of the team has provided inconsistent help at best. Go for the kill Raptors, the monarchy is crumbling before our eyes.

Philadelphia 76ers vs Boston Celtics

Celtics, you're in a similar situation to the Jazz. Like them, you took down an underachiever with lots of talent, but no idea how to use it. Like the Jazz, you now have to play a real team with both talent and chemistry. This sets up a good narrative for a rematch next year though, as hopefully the Celtics will have Irving and Hayward next time.

Remember when you lost game one and I got on my knees and begged you not to lose because I'd go berserk?

Well, you got swept anyhow and then the days got worse and worse and now you see I've gone completely out of my mind!

And, they're coming to take me away ha ha they're coming to take me away ho ho he he ha ha to the funny farm,

The Raptors, they choke all the time and I'll be happy to not watch Cavs Warriors part 4 and they're coming to take me away ha ha!

You thought it was a breeze, and so you laughed, you laughed when SAS had said that you were not a threat, right?

You know you laughed, I heard you laugh, and then you lost, you lost four straight and now you know I'm utterly mad.

And, they're coming to take me away ha ha they're coming to take me away ho ho he he ha ha to the happy home,

DeMar can't make a three to save his life, the coach twiddles his thumbs and they're coming to take me away ha ha!

I hyped you up, you were my pick and this is how you pay me back for all my blind faith and loving praise, huh?

Well you just wait, you're in cap hell, and Lowry's on the decline, so your title window has slammed shut!

And, they're coming to take me away ha ha they're coming to take me away ho ho ha ha to the funny farm,

The Raptors, they choke all the time and I'll be happy to start watching Hockey instead and they're coming to take me away ha ha!

To the happy home, Serge gets paid 20 million to sit and smile and twiddle his thumbs and they're coming to take me away ha ha!

PS: The Sixers would've gotten this treatment for losing to a dead team walking in five, but the Raptors somehow managed to outdo them, taking away the LOLCOW of the season award from the Blazers in the process. Right when I had engraved the trophy too... time to order a replacement.

Last edited by Jay (OTT) at 5/10/2018 1:54:03 AM

Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets

This one's really hard to call. On one hand the Rockets have been incredible all season long. The dual point guard experiment has worked, CP3's presence has made James Harden an even better player, with less turnovers and more efficient scoring compared to last season. They are also bolstered by an endless supply of shooters. If there's a way to score 3, this team will find it.

On the other hand, it's hard to overcome the death line-up that is Golden State's big 4. Stephen Curry appears to be 100% now, and Thompson, Durant and Green have all played to their usual high standard in the play-offs too. The key to beating them may be Clint Capela. Golden State must guard him with someone and their choices are a Shaqtin hall of famer, a dirty talentless thug, some old guy who signed to win a ring, or they have Green or Durant play the 5 and hope for the best.

Best of luck Houston. Whatever you do, don't pull a Toronto.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Boston Celtics

LeBron gets an easy ride to another finals series, yawn. Can we just fast forward to next seas- wait, the Celtics blew them out!? So, yeah, when I said the Celtics were a dead team walking, I don't think anyone was expecting them to pull a Vegas Golden Knights and defy all logic. This sort of play-off performance might be an omen of the zombie apocalypse. I'll be in my bunker.

The Vegas comparison is apt here, as there isn't a single key to their success to point to. Horford has been very efficient, and Rozier has thrived in Irving's absence, whilst Brown and Tatum haven't let inexperience hamper them. Their clutch performance was key in the Sixers series; they were down by 4 with under 2 minutes to play in games 3 and 5. They won both, turning what could've been a 3-2 series deficit into a 4-1 win.

As for the Cavs, we pretty much know the game plan for them. LeBron or bust. But victory is far from assured because now they're playing a team that actually has a gameplan to stop him. Dwane Casey was fired recently and honestly, I think it makes sense because the Raptors need a play-off coach, one like Brad Stevens who has already made me eat shit twice in these play-offs.

Last edited by Jay (OTT) at 5/14/2018 1:31:36 AM