A couple of interesting notes, Flash Mashers finished the game with a Lucky Fan and it went from 88-77 with 1:30 left to 99-96. 30 points in 90 seconds!
Marshland went from an 11 point lead with 90 seconds left to almost being tied at the buzzer.
I've always loved the GE of this game....I have always felt it has a very realistic feel and outcomes make sense...However, one area I have been critical is what you bring up. I have gone into a game where one of my best players gets hurt early, and I expect to suck that game and we end playing even better than normal.
Or like the example you gave, where a guy fouls out or gets injured in the last few minutes, and you expect the other team to gain an advantage from that point on, but instead, the "disadvantaged" team takes control.
When that happens...it feels like rather than the GE reacting to what's going on at any given point and time in the game play...it already factored in the injury or foul out from from the beginning of the game and factored it into the result...but when it happens late like that and everyone goes opposite of what you would expect...it doesn't feel like a realistic SIM at that point.