I'm tipping Warriors in 6. I think Portland can give them trouble but I just can't picture the Warriors losing before the conference final. Maybe next year is Portland's year though, their entire squad is in the correct side of 30 years old and even if they lack the salary cap to do something in free agency, this team should only get better with another year of playing together.
If there's going to be an upset, I think it's going to be Indiana downing the Cavs. I know that Lebron-led teams often tank the regular season to lull the East into a false sense of hope, but even by Lebron's standards this has been a shit show for Cleveland since the all-star break. In fact, my 'long-shot' prediction for the whole play-offs is that we're going to see a Boston-Houston finals.
Yes, I'm getting on the seven seconds or less three-ball chucking hype train, CHOO CHOO!