I'm no scientist, but from your findings I'd say that the winning team fouls more often so it's a winning strategy to have a couple of bruisers on your squad.
I have recently seen the suggestion that high driving skills may force more fouls.
On an inside shot, a drive is usually pretty obvious, with the text saying something like "player x drives to the basket".
someone said that they draw more fouls when their opponent "backs off slightly".
also here i don't like to watch all the games, maybe it is a text for missed shot + foul when it gives something like that.