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I tend to be on Knecht's side on this. I think there is no strong evidence that higher XP does lead to fewer dumb choices in crunch time. Nor does stamina for that matter, but there is evidence of high stamina team consistently coming back strong in 4th quarters. I'm sure it's used in the GE as it says in the Game Manual, but it may have a rather low impact.

In my last game (cup game against the leading team in my conference) the following players particularly caught my eye in crunch time:
SG: Prominent experience, fouls away from the ball while in the bonus
SF: Prolific experience, turnovers, fouls away from the ball while in the bonus, tough unassisted shots
Backup C: Proficient experience a nice sequence of 3 possessions where, in order, he had an offensive foul, the he commited a foul away from the ball early in the shot clock who puts us in the bonus and finally had a turnover. One right after the other
My opponent's PF: He's 27, he torched me all game and played around 12 minutes with 5 fouls defending at least 6 possessions. He finally fouled out with 2 minutes to go, on a non-shooting foul.

Note I say all this while I've also witnessed this kind of comeback in a playoff tie-breaker where experience might have mattered...
http://www.buzzerbeater.com/match/78735403/reportmatch.as...

Last edited by Lemonshine at 8/14/2015 7:40:32 PM

Yeah, this is some good information.

Problem is, where real evidence is concerned, it needs to be based on many sets of data, not one. Probably hundreds of games would be getting to the point where you might be able to take away from anomalies. Presenting one or two or even 5/10 games could very well be useless because of how probability works.

Apologies if I seem condescending; it is truthfully not my intention.

I often watch the games on the viewer, and specifically on my Utopia team where I had very old and very young players, I must say the very young often seemed to come up with the clutch plays. Maybe I notice this more because I didn't expect it, but there does not seem to be a concentration of mistakes on younger guys. It's eye test, it's not a proof, just the opinion of someone watching the games, take it for what it's worth. Also statistically a lower TO% by, say, 5% would be really hard to establish with reasonable accuracy and experience, even in the best scenario, is pretty much useless if compared to Hattrick where it's a fairly important statistic.

...and gathering the data would be nigh on impossible

I think experience is just a staat saying how long they been playing. Plus how good they were in the past. Just my opinion no backup proof for this.

I think gathering the data is possible, but how can you be sure that reduction in TO% is not due to changes in skills?

I mean, to have a meaningful analysis you'd have to compare the same player with the same skills at different levels of Experience, wouldn't you? That's kind of a very difficult task to accomplish and if you do it with only 1 or 2 levels or experience it's unlikely to be noticeable.

I think gathering the data is possible

I do, too, but only in a very sloppy way.

to have a meaningful analysis you'd have to compare the same player with the same skills at different levels of Experience, wouldn't you? That's kind of a very difficult task to accomplish and if you do it with only 1 or 2 levels or experience it's unlikely to be noticeable.

Do you disagree with yourself? Haha!

I agree more with your second point of view. In order to do a meaningful analysis, you'd have to have the same players against the same players and the only thing that changes is their experience. Good luck sorting that out!!

I guess we just have to live with conjecture (and what it states in the game manual) for now.

eh, I'm saying checking is possible, but not really worth the effort especially with the dumb stuff you see happening in the game viewer. My position is that the Game Manual is correct, but , using the eye test, the effect seems to be limited. In addition to that the effect would only be useful in ver y close games going down the wire (which are the ones you want to win, but they are also quite rare).

One way could be to see how well a player shoots free throws in the last 2 minutes of a close game compared to all other times. It would be pretty time consuming, and I'm not planning on running that analysis anytime soon, but anecdotally I've seen lower experience guys miss key FT's more often in the end of close games. Most my guys are pretty solid FT shooters, so it's noticeable when they miss two.

It would be interesting to see if the higher experience players are more clutch on their FT's than the lower experience guys, relative to their regular FT shooting percentage.

And, of course, FT's are only one aspect, so it wouldn't answer any of the broader questions.

Last edited by Iguanadon Joe at 8/15/2015 9:54:17 PM

Uhm I think I could run something like that later next week. Since several of my (older) guys are pretty poor FT shooters overall, some pattern may emerge.

Last edited by Lemonshine at 8/16/2015 7:05:00 AM