in my division, the 2 contenders are Phoenix Suns and myself. But because one conference is stronger than the other, we could end up stealing some games from eachother and let HCA slip to the other conference, giving TBS wolves or SK Wabeke and outside shot. But i must say, in II.1, chances are high that the most important game will be played in the conference final.
This said, you can't forsee the futur. An injury here or there could drastically change the landscape... but in II.3, it seems a pretty close thing. For the first time in a while, there seems to be a challenger from the other conference ( not like how i remember the day's in II.3, where we ended up exhausting our teams in the conference stages :P)