the think with the game manual is just right when you perform the offense with different pace at the same level. And then it is right that with slow pace the point differential is smaller, and with a smaller sample the chanches of a surprise are bigger.
buut when your offense performs weaker, because you don't get up your shots(which is easier against weak defense), and the engine usually needs some time sto adjust pace to the opponent and you score 0,1 point less per position the game might be closer with higher pace.