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This Post:
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323561.1
Date: 05/02/2024 05:24:37
Johns Creek Wave
III.12
Overall Posts Rated:
6060
Second Team:
Holly Springs Haggis
Only 17 of the 48 players in my draft class are 18 years old

Is that normal?

Seems like it ought to be more evenly split

From: E.B.W.

This Post:
00
323561.2 in reply to 323561.1
Date: 05/02/2024 16:24:14
ExplosiveBubbleWrap
III.10
Overall Posts Rated:
13821382
Second Team:
BubblesExploded
The draftees that are generated are done randomly. Therefore, the question you are essentially asking is "is randomness normal when it comes to the draft?". The answer is yes.

Most drafts probably consist of a closer to even split, but other drafts will also have more 18s than 19s (the inverse of your draft). You can essentially think of it as flipping a coin (50% of the time you get 18 and 50% of the time you get 19) 48 times for the ages of the draftee spawns. Yes, more times than not you will get roughly 22-26 heads and 22-26 tails, but sometimes there are outliers.

Getting 17 draftees who are 18 years old out of 48 draftees has roughly a 1.51% chance of happening (so it will happen on average 1-2 times per every 100 drafts that are generated).

Last edited by E.B.W. at 05/02/2024 16:26:41

Bubbles BuzzerBeater Official YouTube Channel:(https://www.youtube.com/@BubblesBuzzerBeater)
From: mink0ff

This Post:
11
323561.3 in reply to 323561.2
Date: 05/02/2024 16:56:30
BC Vitosha Sofia
A Grupa
Overall Posts Rated:
776776
Second Team:
Sofia Alpha Dogz
...You can essentially think of it as flipping a coin (50% of the time you get 18 and 50% of the time you get 19)...
I am quite sure 18 and 19yo players are not evenly distributed in the draft. It is more like a 2:1 ratio in favor of 19 year-olds. This is pretty easy to check actually.

17/48 18 year-old players seems normal.

BBB: 2 (S37 S38); Top tier: 7 (S35 S36 S37 S38 S39 S41 S63); Cup: 9 (S25 S35 S36 S37 S38 S39 S40 S41 S61)
From: E.B.W.

This Post:
00
323561.4 in reply to 323561.3
Date: 05/02/2024 17:58:18
ExplosiveBubbleWrap
III.10
Overall Posts Rated:
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Second Team:
BubblesExploded
That's very interesting to me if true. How much have you looked into this? Have there been studies done?

Bubbles BuzzerBeater Official YouTube Channel:(https://www.youtube.com/@BubblesBuzzerBeater)
From: mink0ff

This Post:
00
323561.5 in reply to 323561.4
Date: 05/02/2024 18:09:32
BC Vitosha Sofia
A Grupa
Overall Posts Rated:
776776
Second Team:
Sofia Alpha Dogz
Have there been studies done?
Yes, you can do one yourself right now by getting on the NT tool and checking the last draft in several countries.

BBB: 2 (S37 S38); Top tier: 7 (S35 S36 S37 S38 S39 S41 S63); Cup: 9 (S25 S35 S36 S37 S38 S39 S40 S41 S61)
From: E.B.W.

This Post:
00
323561.6 in reply to 323561.5
Date: 05/02/2024 18:27:32
ExplosiveBubbleWrap
III.10
Overall Posts Rated:
13821382
Second Team:
BubblesExploded
Are you talking about?: (https://nt.buzzerbeater.com/)

Problem with that method is that it will not bring up any players who have been fired. 19s have higher skills and can be used more in the cup, so even if their potential is lower, less of them are fired than the 18s. Looking on the National Team Scout website will not give an accurate projection of which players were drafted to my understanding.

If what you say is true, I don't think that in my most recent draft, we would have had 30/48 draftees who were 18.

See for yourself: (https://www.buzzerbeater.com/league/4/draftSummary.aspx)


Bubbles BuzzerBeater Official YouTube Channel:(https://www.youtube.com/@BubblesBuzzerBeater)
From: mink0ff

This Post:
00
323561.7 in reply to 323561.6
Date: 05/02/2024 18:41:38
BC Vitosha Sofia
A Grupa
Overall Posts Rated:
776776
Second Team:
Sofia Alpha Dogz
If what you say is true, I don't think that in my most recent draft, we would have had 30/48 draftees who were 18.
You were just talking about randomness and outliers. In my current Utopia draft the distribution is 18/30 in favor of 19 y.o.

Anyways, the ratio is probably not as high as 2:1. Might be 3:2 or 8:5, dunno. But I'm quite convinced that 19 y.o. are more on average. Guess we should wait for Justin again.

BBB: 2 (S37 S38); Top tier: 7 (S35 S36 S37 S38 S39 S41 S63); Cup: 9 (S25 S35 S36 S37 S38 S39 S40 S41 S61)
From: E.B.W.

This Post:
00
323561.8 in reply to 323561.7
Date: 05/02/2024 19:07:05
ExplosiveBubbleWrap
III.10
Overall Posts Rated:
13821382
Second Team:
BubblesExploded
Sounds good to me! I've always thought the odds were even, so if I'm wrong, my whole BB life is a lie. If we find out that the ratio for 19s is indeed higher, I'll be able to cope, knowing that at least you were right!

Bubbles BuzzerBeater Official YouTube Channel:(https://www.youtube.com/@BubblesBuzzerBeater)
This Post:
11
323561.10 in reply to 323561.9
Date: 05/04/2024 15:05:10
Johns Creek Wave
III.12
Overall Posts Rated:
6060
Second Team:
Holly Springs Haggis
The sadness is that this is the first season I have invested money in the draft in probably 12 seasons

I have scouted most of the 18 year olds and found one 4* potential and he doesn't fit what I am training


One guy had a 5 star rating and A+ grade with a 1 * potential.

It reinforces what I have thought all along. Save your money and buy them off the TL

From: E.B.W.

This Post:
44
323561.11 in reply to 323561.10
Date: 05/04/2024 15:16:41
ExplosiveBubbleWrap
III.10
Overall Posts Rated:
13821382
Second Team:
BubblesExploded
After the draft updates to 19 year olds, they can be just as valuable (if not more valuable) than 18 year olds. I'd encourage you to interview some of the 19s in your draft.

Bubbles BuzzerBeater Official YouTube Channel:(https://www.youtube.com/@BubblesBuzzerBeater)