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Are 18 year old rookies overrated?

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From: Horns23
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255962.1
Date: 3/21/2014 8:59:42 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
4141
Of course if all things are equal you want the 18 year old over the 19. Also if you're shooting for u21 then an 18 year old is a must. But if you're just looking for a star and a cornerstone for your team, I think a 19 year old is fine. Many times I see people give draft tips and say " put 19 year olds at the bottom of your draft list". I feel like many would take a 4/4 18 year old over a 4/5 19 year old just because that one year difference. I don't get that. If you're not going for U21, then age really shouldn't matter in the draft. I see this on the TL too. Many will spend hundreds more on an 18 year old over a 19 year old that is exactly the same. The players are going to hit their potential someday, so the difference between a year in teenagers doesn't matter.


Any thoughts?

Last edited by Horns23 at 3/21/2014 9:01:14 PM

From: E.B.W.

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255962.3 in reply to 255962.1
Date: 3/22/2014 1:29:29 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
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I think if you are higher than the 4th pick in the draft it can be very valuable to start looking at 19 year olds. 19 year olds can be very good, as you said, a lot of people just do not like training them because they missed their fastest year of training and generally people like to get a new round of trainees every 4-5 seasons, and it is easier to buy a cheap 18 year old on the TL than train a 19 year old to be where you want them, when you want to move on to your next group of trainees.

Murray/Harris/MPJ/Grant/Jokic - 2020 NBA Champs
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255962.4 in reply to 255962.1
Date: 3/22/2014 3:21:07 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
621621
If you want a top notch player, you must start training from the 18th. You can still add a bunch of secondary skills in his 18th year.

If your training plan isn't overly ambitious, sure you can pick a 19y old, and train using a 3 or 4 trainer.

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255962.6 in reply to 255962.4
Date: 3/22/2014 4:49:15 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
4141
If you want a top notch player, you must start training from the 18th. You can still add a bunch of secondary skills in his 18th year.

If your training plan isn't overly ambitious, sure you can pick a 19y old, and train using a 3 or 4 trainer.


This is what I'm saying. Eventually your player will hit a cap, so why does it matter when. Of course training at 18 is extremely fast, but that also so at 19.

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255962.7 in reply to 255962.6
Date: 3/23/2014 1:12:42 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
6969
Reaching full potential is hard with a 19 than an 18 because you lose out on the fastest year of training speed.

It matters in the sense, how long will you be able to take advantage of the player who has reached full potential. For example I could max out my 18 YO trainee at the age of 26 let's say while it would take me until 27.5 or maybe almost 28 to max out the 19 YO trainee. You then have 1-2 years less until your player's skills start declining (at 32). That's where the extra value comes in.

Now granted. I think that the TL trainees can get over priced a lot. I have no hard evidence, but my gut says a lot of these prime trainees go to less knowledgeable players who don't make use of the trainee to their full potential by training them.

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255962.9 in reply to 255962.7
Date: 3/23/2014 6:49:36 AM
Overall Posts Rated:
219219
personally i had trained few 19 year olds one is my best pg he capped at age 23 and 45k salary with 102 skillpoints perenial allstar. and id go for 19year old anytime soon. basicly you dont lose speed, well diference between 18and 19 year olds what? 1 pop per season? basicly all you lose is 1 year of his life before his skills becomes to detoriate.

iF your ambition isnt u-21 or nt then 19 year old suits very fine.

Last edited by Gajus Julijus Cezaris at 3/23/2014 6:50:15 AM

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255962.10 in reply to 255962.9
Date: 3/23/2014 1:53:12 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
6969
To be honest, a PA is very easy to cap out, I've almost capped mine that started as an 18YO at the age of 21. I'm talking about when you get an MVP+ those take a while to cap out and this is when you start to see what I'm talking about take place.

I'm not sure about your country specifically. But in my country, if I wanna make it to the top, I'm gonna need players with SS+ potential that are maxed out to compete. Regardless of whether or not the players make it to NT. Once I have these players, I'd like to make use of them as long as possible. Hence why I said what I said.

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255962.11 in reply to 255962.1
Date: 3/23/2014 6:40:58 PM
Overall Posts Rated:
9191
Well, people have touched on it, but I think that the 18 year old season can be worth 8-12 skill points (depending on trainer level and whether you are filling holes). So, for a 19 year old to be worth it to me, he would have to have at least 10 more skill points than the 18 year old. Of course, you don't know tsp in the draft, so my draft board tends to be 4 and 5 ball 18 year olds sorted by potential, then 5 and 4 ball 19 year olds (I tend not to waste the draft points to interview them) followed by 3 ball players, unknown players, and, finally, 1-2 ball players.

Honestly, I would always start with an 18 year old as your primary trainee. If you want to have a 19 year old as a second or third trainee, I could see that, but they would really need to be above most 18 year olds. I'm talking like 60+ starting TSP. I think you could train a 60 TSP 19 year old over a 35 TSP 18 year old.