Your reasoning makes sense and honestly I also understand the full gdp... Maybe it was a bit risky but if you felt you were going to play at a lower enthusiasm and still wanted to try to steal a win, it’s a perfectly valid move. And in the past it worked for you, so that understandable
About Hong Kong.. you’re right, I hadn’t paid enough attention to your game against them (and even Estonia almost winning is "concerning") plus they lost the Asian Championship last season so yeah.. they look more vulnerable this year.
That said I still think HK should be favoured against Serbia, especially because of the enthusiasm situation
I agree 100% with you that Israel–Serbia will be a close game... As i said, on paper Israel is slightly favoured imo, but Serbia definitely has real chances to win.
Regarding Belgium vs Israel... maybe it’s not a 50–50 like I said earlier, but I think last season’s +17 is a bit misleading:
- the game potentially should have been slightly tighter
- the week before you had spent enthusiasm (unlike Israel)
- and both NTs use GDPs
- game shape is always a question mark
So maybe not exactly a coinflip, but both teams have solid chances
About Group A
I don’t really understand why you give Lithuania no chance against China. To me it’s at least a possibility..
As for Spain, the problem is that potentially they might have to play both matches with lower effort (I think it's unlikely they lose both anyways... but it's a possibility) since that’s always uncomfortable at this level
Of course it also depends on Lithuania... if they use a CT vs China, then yes... I would give them almost a 0% chance the following week against Spain