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IS is no longer free for guards as far as I know.

Also the problem are not JR or JS, but the way open shots are simulated. Open shots should have a higher chance of going in, but it appears that team defense is what determines the success of an open shot.

Dunks are the highest probability shot in the game. Driving layups also have a higher baseline probability than jump shots. Instead of artificially changing the distance of the shots as they did, they should have simply increased the probability of open jump shots and 3 pointers.

Last edited by Lemonshine at 04/02/2018 21:04:54

Look Inside are popular because Outside Defense can be against everything and Inside Shot is free and easy to get with PF/SF driving for short players. The former denies outside tactics and the latter enhance inside offense.

Sure, teams may shoot better and more efficiently with LI than they would with an outside tactic, but they also have to deal with getting more offensive rebounds and free throw attempts and... oh, yeah.

Also the problem are not JR or JS, but the way open shots are simulated. Open shots should have a higher chance of going in, but it appears that team defense is what determines the success of an open shot.

Yes, yes, a million times yes. Did I mention yes?

I still remember a SG I had (Jack Poirier) who consistently over a two plus season span had a higher FG% on contested jump shots vs. "open" ones. I don't believe I ever played him out of position (so always PG, SG, or maybe SF) so it's not a case of lighting up the three skill donkey big men, either. And he was my best pure jump shooter pretty much all of that time, so it wasn't like it was just a guy who wouldn't shoot unless given a tremendous matchup.

Did you see the other post?

S39 unguarded turnaround jumpers 0/77, fade aways 0/100 and hooks 0/85: all 0% success rate.
Guarded turnaround 78/238, fade aways 306/1092 and hooks 80/271.

S38 (on incomplete data) unguarded turnaround 1/62, fade aways 1/55 and hooks 0/56
Guarded turnaround 60/194, fade aways 295/881 and hooks 67/196

So it appears that if you want to score on those shots it MUST be a guarded shot. Interesting and completely bollocks.


The FG% for Jump Shots is 37% unguarded and 30.5% guarded. The number for 3 pointers is 28.6% and 23.6% respectively. But of course to add insult to injury Jumpers and 3 pointers are also the most guarded shots (with only 34% and 24% open shots respectively).

Last edited by Lemonshine at 04/07/2018 05:41:44

Did you see the other post?

S39 unguarded turnaround jumpers 0/77, fade aways 0/100 and hooks 0/85: all 0% success rate.
Guarded turnaround 78/238, fade aways 306/1092 and hooks 80/271.

S38 (on incomplete data) unguarded turnaround 1/62, fade aways 1/55 and hooks 0/56
Guarded turnaround 60/194, fade aways 295/881 and hooks 67/196

So it appears that if you want to score on those shots it MUST be a guarded shot. Interesting and completely bollocks.


The FG% for Jump Shots is 37% unguarded and 30.5% guarded. The number for 3 pointers is 28.6% and 23.6% respectively. But of course to add insult to injury Jumpers and 3 pointers are also the most guarded shots (with only 34% and 24% open shots respectively).

Yeah, I saw it. It's good stuff (well, good in the sense that I appreciate the effort and considered it very useful to know, not that I think the stats are indicative of a positive situation in terms of the game's balance). I kind of wish I had the patience to catalog the wild disparities in shooting percentages that occur with Princeton - I suspect if I went back through, I could probably identify at least one third of the games where I had a six minute stretch with under 5 points and a six minute stretch with at least 18 points. Maybe even more than that.

A French user you know very well bought supporter for me without saying anything, so I might try to complete my code before it expires and we can have a look at some stuff. He's also interested in the same table I posted but for specific tactics.

My file currently has 2 problems:
1) I can easily extract the games list and all the other info from the BBApi and I extract all the boxscores like that to double check that my number from the pbp are correct. However, downloading the pbp for, say, 176 games (1 season for 1 league, but could be easily more) is another thing altogether, because the website logs me out at regular intervals and I'm not skilled enough in dealing with internet explorer through VBA to understand how to fix it, so I worked around it but I need to clean it up.
2) All the output part is not done. I was going to make tables like advanced stats, regular stats, stats /36, defensive stats and shooting stats by league/team/player. I couldn't be bothered to spend the time to build that up, but maybe I will do the advanced stats, shooting and defense now. I'm open to suggestions about what to implement.

So that we're clear what I have after I import the data is something like this for every event in the pbp and every game (s39 in the EBBL had 87,152 lines):
http://tinypic.com/r/2pq7rth/9
plus the lineups
http://tinypic.com/r/n689ra/9
plus all the information on the games from the BBApi (which include tactics and GDP)

Note that I also have information on the lineups on the floor for any given event in the game and the time on the shot clock. Both are useful to check different things. The lineups will be useful if we decide for example to look for some evidence for or against the theory that C shoot better from 3 when they are guarded.

I will do the Princeton analysis on 6 seasons: 2 of yours, 2 of Nachtmahr and 2 of the other guy who volunteered in the thread and we can compare league-wide (or league ex Princeton playing teams) stats and distributions and Princeton only stats and distributions.

Last edited by Lemonshine at 04/09/2018 20:09:45